Obama's "New" Afghanistan Policy: Surge On!

General David Petraeus, in George W. Bush's administration became General "Betrayus." But in Barack Obama's administration he is the architect for the new surge in Afghanistan.

Obama's been rattling the sabers to get to the "real" war on terrorism in Afghanistan and away from the "fake" war in Iraq.

In a Bloomberg.com story, "Mullen Says Close to 30,000 New Soldiers Likely for Afghanistan" Admiral Michael Mullen, head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says that the soldiers are needed to shore up the deteriorating security in Afghanistan. And who will be the architect of the new troop surge in Afghanistan? Ironically, it's General Petraeus, the same general who was vilified by liberal democrats for engineering a troop surge in Iraq that many said would fail. Here's an exceprt from the infamous MoveOn.org ad that ran in the New York Times:

Every independent report on the ground situation in Iraq shows that the surge strategy has failed. Yet the General claims a reduction in violence. That’s because, according to the New York Times, the Pentagon has adopted a bizarre formula for keeping tabs on violence.

MoveOn.org spoke too rashly and too early. The trouble was, the surge worked in Iraq. Violence decreased. US troop casualties decreased. The country became more stable. Al-qaida was mostly pushed out. Another Iraqi violence-free election has recently taken place.

During the presidential campaign, the democrats had less and less to say about the war in Iraq because the surge strategy was working. The Bush administration also negotiated a timetable to pull out US troops. The pullout would happen after Bush's term in office, but it would happen. The democratic party had the wind taken out of its sails in planning to campaign against the war. Iraq was barely an issue during the presidential election.

In fact, Petraeus' strategy worked so well, Obama is now taking it up, dusting it off, and calling it his own in order to provide security in Afghanistan against Taliban insurgency.

I'm not reporting this for mere irony's sake, however. There's a problem with applying the same strategy in Afghanistan: if the Afghan people perceive a US troop increase as an occupation, we could likely get mired in the same sort of war in Afghanistan that the Soviets suffered in the 1980s, and the British suffered three times before that.

Of course, the Taliban would rather see the US troops withdraw, not increase. The Taliban is rattling its own sabers at the propects of troop increases in Afghanistan.

The Taliban said Obama should end the war by withdrawing troops. "The new American president should end a long era of wars and begin an era of peace," Taliban spokesman, Qari Mohammad Yousuf, told Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press.

"We want to tell America and the West to withdraw forces from Afghanistan," Taliban spokesman Qari Mohammad Yousuf told the Pakistan-based Afghanistan Islamic Press news agency. "I have no expectations but if he sends more troops to Afghanistan, our jihad will continue ... If he brings changes to Bush's policies in real terms, then he will be the winner and if he doesn't then there will be more crises in the world." ("Afghanistan Welcomes Obama Win, Wants New Strategy")

Defense Secretary Robert Gates had this to say about the new US strategy:

He stressed that if the U.S. is seen as an occupying force, rather than one supporting the Afghan forces, "we will set ourselves up for failure."

"The Afghan people must believe this is their war and we are there to help them. If they think we are there for our own purposes, then we will go the way of every other foreign army that has been in Afghanistan ," Gates said. ("No More Nation Building: Gates Sets New Goals for Afghanistan")

Where does that leave Obama and the "new" US policy to increase troops in Afghanistan? Obama has set foot on a tightrope, crossing into dangerous territory. It is possible that, if General Petraeus is given the leeway and resources to conduct warfare against insurgency in Afghanistan, the US will do well militarily.

On the political side, however, I have no confidence in the new administration. We'll see if Obama can walk the tightrope without falling off and miring us into another unwinnable war in Afghanistan.