Barack Obama, the Gallup Poll, Wall Street and Dow Jones

Despite Congress borrowing $787 billion dollars in order to deficit spend ourselves into economic recovery, the American people aren't buying it.

Barack Obama has now been president of the United States for one month. As we all know, Obama got elected by saying the words "hope" and "change" over and over again until a good percentage of Americans actually believed him. We all remember one of his most quotable quotes: "Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."

How about this quote? "A good compromise, a good piece of legislation, is like a good sentence; or a good piece of music. Everybody can recognize it. They say, 'Huh. It works. It makes sense.' " Did Americans say "Huh. It works," when the $787 billion spending bill passed Congress and when Obama signed it?

Obama is what Americans sought this past election but who did we get? Did Americans get who we expected? Are there any indications that Obama brought change we could all believe in? Are we pleased with our purchase or do we now have "buyer's remorse?"

If we take a look at some poll and economic indicators, we can get a pretty good idea of the hope and change the Obama has brought to Americans.

The Gallup Poll

The Gallup Poll is a good tool for understanding current US trends. For example, if we take a look at Obama's approval rating, he started his administration with a near-record high of 68%, tying Eisenhower and only eclipsed by Kennedy for a starting approval number. in contrast, Clinton and George W. Bush started their first terms a full ten points below Obama. How is Obama doing a month later? Gallup shows Obama has slipped to 63%, still a remarkable number, but steadily falling as Americans get used to President Obama instead of Messiah Obama. It happens to all presidents and we'll see in six months or so how Americans really feel about Barack Obama once the honeymoon is over. For now, Americans are still starry eyed.

Gallup reports some dismal numbers for American confidence, numbers held over from the Bush administration. American lack of confidence in the state of the nation has remained flat over the past month, currently with 78% dissatisfaction. What does that mean? Well, for one thing, in the month that Obama has taken office, has signed several dubious bills reshaping the morals of society, and pushed a $787 billion spending bill through Congress, Americans have not changed their dissatisfaction with the state of the nation. No hope and change there.

What about Gallup's reporting on consumer confidence over the past month? Consumer confidence has actually dropped ten points. Americans feel worse off now as consumers than when Obama first took office. As the Gallup analysis says:

It is a reasonable hypothesis that the stimulus bill could have a more immediate impact on consumer psychology, with Americans' views of the economy in theory perking up in anticipation of the bill's effects.

Current Gallup tracking data, however, do not support this hypothesis.

Hope and change? Admittedly, we need to give this tracking data a bit more time. The problem, however, is that no one, no economist, no representative, no senator, nor Obama knows what the effects of the $787 billion dollar spending package will do. No one even really knows what it says. It will take weeks or months of analysis to tally up what's actually in the new law. It will take years to tally the effects. It could help the economy. More likely, it will hurt the economy as US credit gets stretched too thin and inflation rises.

There are some interesting hidden agenda items in the spending package. For example, there's a provision to create a new Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology? It "'will monitor treatments to make sure your doctor is doing what the federal government deems appropriate and cost effective.' Note: not what your doctor deems appropriate, but what the federal government does." (source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Gallup gives a gloomy picture of Americans' confidence in the state of the nation and in consumer spending. We can also learn something from looking at the stock market. For example, on Obama's inauguration day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.2%, the worst stock fall on an inaugural day, ever. To put this in perspective, when Roosevelt took office during the Great Depression, the DJIA went up 2.5 %. Americans trading on Wall Street were hopeful that Roosevelt would actually bring change. Apparently the stock market wasn't quite so hopeful with Obama. As a matter of fact, this past month the DJIA has dipped nearly 500 points, about 6.5%. Despite the election of a popular president Wall Street isn't feeling the hope and change.

Where does that leave us? The numbers show that American confidence in Barack Obama far outstrips American confidence in what Obama and Congress have done so far to help the economy. It's time we remove Obama from his pedestal and understand that his message of hope and change was a smokescreen. We need to stop looking at him through rose colored glasses and start to hold him accountable for some real change. The first change I'd like to see is for Obama to become a real leader, instead of a two bit salesman, peddling policies that the American people aren't really buying.